When to Make a Topic Popular Again? A Temporal Model for Topic Re-hotting Prediction in Online Social Networks

ABSTRACT:

It is really popular to detect hot topics, which can benefit many tasks including topic recommendations, the guidance of public opinions, and so on. However, in some cases, people may want to know when to re-hot a topic, i.e., make the topic popular again. In this paper, we address this issue by introducing a temporal User Topic Participation (UTP) model which models users’ behaviors of posting messages. The UTP model takes into account users’ interests, friend-circles, and unexpected events in online social networks. Also, it considers the continuous temporal modeling of topics, since topics are changing continuously over time. Furthermore, a weighting scheme is proposed to smooth the fluctuations in topic re-hotting prediction. Finally, experimental results conducted on real-world data sets demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed models and topic re-hotting prediction methods.

PROJECT OUTPUT VIDEO: (Click the below link to see the project output video):

EXISTING SYSTEM:

·         Wang et al. propose an algorithm to predict topic trends, which addresses the problem of short life circles of topics. Furthermore, a methodology is presented to detect the topic of epidemics based on Twitter. However, all these research work just concentrates on detecting popular topics, and they cannot be directly used to deal with the problem of TRP.

·         Zhang et al. propose a new method to detect events and to predict their popularity simultaneously. Specifically, they detect events from online microblogging stream by utilizing multiple types of information, i.e., term frequency and users’ social relation. Meanwhile, the popularity of detected event is predicted through a proposed diffusion model which takes both the content and user information of the event into account.

·         Zhang et al. address the problem of inferring continuous dynamic users’ behavior by utilizing both the social influence and the personal preference.

DISADVANTAGES OF EXISTING SYSTEM:

·         Topic re-hotting prediction is more difficult than topic detection.

·         The methods of topic detection only justify whether or not a new topic is emerging, however the topic re-hotting prediction approaches should tell exact time points when a given topic will re-emerge.

·         Unfortunately, to the best of our knowledge, few studies considered when to re-hot topics so far.

·         It is nontrivial to formalize the problem of topic re-hotting prediction and reasonably model the mechanism of topic participation.

·         It is very difficult to precisely obtain opportune time points for re-hotting a given topic.

·         It is not easy to propose an effective topic re-hotting prediction approach.

PROPOSED SYSTEM:

·         This paper addresses the problem of topic re-hotting prediction. As shown in Fig, we could consider the following two strategies to deal with the topic re-hotting prediction problem.

·         The discrete modeling strategy divides the whole time domain into contiguous non-overlapping time windows, and then uses the trained data (depicted as blue broken lines) to predict whether the topic will re-hot in the next time window (i.e., during the period from t5 to t6). Although this strategy is easily understandable, it cannot predict accurate time points for re-hotting a given topic. Furthermore, it is hard to describe the changing trends of topics in a fine-grained manner.

·         The continuous modeling strategy argues that topics are continuously changing in the time domain. Based on the trained data (depicted as red solid lines), it predicts accurate time points when the topic will re-hot, e.g., at the time point t’5. Please note that this strategy could predict the re-hotting time points over a long period of time (depicted as red dotted lines) instead of just the next time window.

ADVANTAGES OF PROPOSED SYSTEM:

·         We present and formalize the problem of topic re-hotting prediction (TRP) in OSNs at the first time. It facilitates a better understanding of the topic characteristics when the focusing topics are dwindling, as well as benefits many related issues, such as topic detection and topic tracing.

·         We propose a novel temporal model, i.e., User Topic Participation (UTP) model, for the TRP problem. UTP can effectively explain users’ behaviors of participating in the topic discussions in OSNs. Also, we bring forward an improved EM algorithm called EMG to effectively infer the UTP model.

·         We design a method based on the UTP model to appropriately predict the re-hotting time points for given once-hot topics, i.e., the topics which had been hot before.

·         We evaluate the performance of our methods on three different real-world data sets collected from OSNs. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of both the proposed UTP model and TRP method.

SYSTEM ARCHITECTURE:

SYSTEM REQUIREMENTS:

HARDWARE REQUIREMENTS: 

·         System : Pentium Dual Core.

·         Hard Disk : 120 GB.

·         Monitor : 15’’ LED

·         Input Devices : Keyboard, Mouse

·         Ram : 1 GB

SOFTWARE REQUIREMENTS: 

·         Operating system : Windows 7.

·         Coding Language : JAVA/J2EE

·         Tool : Netbeans 7.2.1

·         Database : MYSQL

REFERENCE:

Chaokun Wang, Member, IEEE, Xin Xin, and Jingwen Shang, “When to Make a Topic Popular Again? A Temporal Model for Topic Re-hotting Prediction in Online Social Networks”, IEEE Transactions on Signal and Information Processing over Networks 2017.